Bill Cassidy, Republican senator from Louisiana, just lost his primary. He finished third — behind both Julia Letlow and John Fleming, who will face each other in a June 27 runoff. Cassidy will not be returning to the United States Senate. Good. And not primarily because of his impeachment vote. The reason I care is the Bipartisan Safer Communities Act, Pub. L. 117-159 (2022) — and what it meant that he, along with fourteen other Republican senators, voted for it on June 23, 2022.
That date matters. June 23, 2022 is the day the United States Supreme Court handed down New York State Rifle & Pistol Association, Inc. v. Bruen, 597 U.S. 1 (2022) — a 6-3 ruling that confirmed the Second Amendment protects your right and my right to carry a handgun in public for self-defense. It was one of the biggest Second Amendment victories in American history. And on that exact same day, fifteen Republican senators crossed the aisle and gave Joe Biden the first federal gun control bill enacted in nearly thirty years.
What the BSCA Actually Did
Let’s be clear about what these senators voted for. The Bipartisan Safer Communities Act expanded federal red flag grant programs, pouring $750 million over five years into state extreme risk protection order schemes. It also tightened the definition of who is “engaged in the business” of selling firearms under Section 12004 — effectively sweeping more private sellers into the federal licensing net and carrying penalties of up to fifteen years in prison, or twenty-five if the firearm ends up used in a serious crime. These were not minor tweaks. This was a substantive expansion of federal gun control infrastructure, pushed by Joe Biden, shepherded through the Senate by Democrat Chris Murphy of Connecticut working hand-in-glove with — and this still stings — Republican John Cornyn of Texas.
My concern was never just the individual provisions. My concern is what passing this bill signaled to the anti-gun movement. It told them federal gun control is achievable. It moved the Overton window. It gave Biden and Kamala Harris a talking point and a template heading into 2024. Had they won, we would have seen them use the BSCA as the floor, not the ceiling.
Fifteen Republicans, One Scorecard
I have been tracking what happened to each of these fifteen senators, and the trend is our friend. Roy Blunt of Missouri — retired 2023. Richard Burr of North Carolina — retired 2023. Rob Portman of Ohio — retired 2023. Pat Toomey of Pennsylvania — retired 2023. Mitt Romney of Utah — retired January 2025. That is five gone without a fight. Thom Tillis of North Carolina announced he will not seek reelection in 2026. Joni Ernst of Iowa announced retirement in September 2025. Mitch McConnell announced in February 2025 he would not seek an eighth term. Bill Cassidy just lost his primary outright.
John Cornyn is in a May 26 runoff against Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, who now has President Trump’s endorsement. I will say plainly what I think: I want Cornyn gone. I generally do not like primarying Republican incumbents. But Cornyn did not merely vote for the BSCA — he led the effort. He negotiated it directly with Murphy and Chuck Schumer. That is a different category of offense. That is not a judgment call I can extend good faith to. He knew what he was doing, and he did it anyway.
The Brand Argument
Here is why the primary accountability picture matters beyond any individual senator. The Republican Party needs a coherent brand — the same way McDonald’s, Arby’s, or IBM each carries a specific set of connotations the moment you hear the name. When someone hears “Republican,” “Trump agenda,” “MAGA” — the Second Amendment has to be baked into that brand automatically. It has to be non-negotiable. The moment you have Republican senators voting for federal gun control legislation, that brand gets blurred. Voters who care about the right to keep and bear arms no longer know what they are actually getting when they pull the lever for an R.
That is not abstract. I have argued this point publicly, in Breitbart, and at length on this channel. When Cornyn and Cassidy voted for the BSCA, they did not just cast a bad vote. They eroded the one thing Republican primary voters have a right to count on: that their senator will never give the gun-control movement a win they would use to come back for more.
The Exceptions Are Real, But Limited
I am not applying this standard mechanically. Susan Collins is a Republican in deep-blue Maine. Her reelection depends on being moderate, and she delivered for us on the confirmation of Justice Brett Kavanaugh in 2018. I am not going to criticize Collins for the BSCA vote given that political reality. Lindsey Graham is all over the map, but he has been an asset on judicial confirmations. Shelley Moore Capito of West Virginia made a mistake; I will note it without calling for her head. Lisa Murkowski, frankly, votes like a Democrat a substantial portion of the time — she is a distinct concern heading into any close Senate, but that is a separate conversation.
The others? The trend has been unmistakable. Of the fifteen Republicans who voted for the BSCA, it looks like only four or five will remain in office twelve months from now. The rest have been retired, voted out, or are on their way out. The Indiana state Senate told the same story just weeks ago — six Trump-backed challengers defeated incumbents who had voted to block the Republican redistricting effort, with one survivor winning by three votes out of more than twelve thousand cast.
Primary voters are paying attention. The scorecard is not complicated: you vote to expand federal gun control while the Supreme Court is handing us a landmark victory on the same calendar day, the voters are going to remember. Good riddance.
This article is based on analysis by Professor Mark W. Smith, constitutional attorney and Host of the Four Boxes Diner 2nd Amendment channel. Watch the original video here. This does not constitute legal advice.